By comparing the number of observed deaths against those predicted by their model in the absence of interventions, the authors suggest that approximately 3.1 million deaths have been averted due to non-pharmaceutical measures. The team estimate that by that date between 12 and 15 million individuals in these countries had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 (3.2% to 4% of the population, with large country-to-country fluctuations). They analysed data from 11 countries in Europe, including the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, Germany and Belgium, up until 4 May 2020. The Imperial team used death data to infer changes in the course of the COVID-19 epidemic as a result of non-pharmaceutical interventions. An alternative way to track an epidemic - and the method used by the researchers in this study - is to calculate infection levels retrospectively by analysing reported deaths.Īlthough death data may also be subject to under- or misreporting, it is considered more reliable than case data, and can also be useful to estimate the share of unreported cases. However, the reproduction number can be difficult to calculate using case data, as a larger proportion of infections are likely to go unreported. Our model suggests that the measures put in place in these countries in March 2020 were successful in controlling the epidemic Dr Seth Flaxman Study author Measuring the effectiveness of these interventions is important, given their economic and social impacts, and may indicate which courses of action are needed in future to maintain control.Įstimating the reproduction number - the average number of cases an infected person is likely to cause while they are infectious - is a useful measure. They caution that the results offer a general view of the current situation that may not fully account for differences in approaches.įrom 2–29 March 2020, European countries began implementing major non-pharmaceutical methods (such as school closures and national lockdowns) to control the COVID-19 epidemic.
The team, from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute (J-IDEA), and Imperial's Department of Mathematics, estimated reductions in transmission based on combined data from 11 European countries up to early May 2020. This data suggests that without any interventions, such as lockdown and school closures, there could have been many more deaths from COVID-19 Dr Samir Bhatt Study author This is the conclusion of a modelling study from Imperial College London scientists, published online in Nature today, which suggests lockdown measures have been sufficient to control the growth of the epidemic. Large-scale lockdowns and other non-pharmaceutical interventions in Europe have been successful in reducing the transmission levels of SARS-CoV-2.
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